In this report, Menon has assessed the market development for floating and bottom-fixed offshore wind, as well as the long-term revenue potential of the Norwegian offshore wind industry. The report is an update of Menon’s floating offshore wind analysis from 2022, but also includes analyses of the market for bottom-fixed offshore wind. The analysis is conducted on behalf of Norwegian Offshore Wind, Offshore Norge, Innovation Norway and Export Finance Norway.

A successful establishment of an offshore wind industry will generate significant economic impact in Norway. Based on Menon’s economic impact model, we find that a Norwegian-based industry linked to floating offshore wind could support between 7 000 and 36 000 jobs in 2050, depending on market development and the competitiveness of the Norwegian industry. The industry could also provide GDP contributions of between NOK 15 billion and NOK 78 billion in 2050. Calculations of the economic impact of the bottom-fixed industry show employment effects of between 6 600 and 25 100 employees and GDP-contribution effects of between NOK 14 billion and NOK 54 billion in 2050. It is important to point out that the estimates presented here are gross figures. The net effect will depend on the alternative use of the resources, including labour and capital.

The revenue potential of Norwegian players in offshore wind depends on how big the market becomes, as well as the competitiveness of the Norwegian industry. Our analysis show that competitiveness will have a greater impact on the revenue potential than the size of the market. To strengthen the Norwegian competitive advantage, we consider the following factors to be particularly relevant:

• An active domestic market will strengthen Norwegian players in both markets, but the impact will be greater in the current commercialization phase of floating offshore wind.
• Strengthened international commitment from the Norwegian offshore wind industry, with the established players at the forefront.
• Accelerated technology development, focusing on standardization, robotization and automation.
• Ensuring sufficient production capacity around the technology concepts that are established, especially within port services as well as assembly and installation.
• Transfer of resources and capitalization on existing expertise, supported by the willingness of the Norwegian industry to adapt.

Read the English summary here. The entire report in Norwegian can be found here.

Contact person: Even Winje